Cyclone Probability

LATEST CYCLONE  UPDATE

CYCLONE FORCASTING SYSTEM OVER BAY OF BENGAL REGION.

STATUS:

Update: 10:30 PM IST 21.10.2020

A low Pressure area has formed over Central part of Bay of Bengal in last 48 hours and intensified into Well Mark Low Pressure area.

Well Mark Low Pressure area is now located over West central Bay of Bengal and adjoining North West Bay of Bengal.

It's will be chance to intensify into Depression in next 24 Hours and chance to further intensify into Deep depression in next 48 hours, but as per current weather analysis this system can be intensify more than Deep depression shortly. 

But after that, it will be enter in land, reason of land interaction, it can not able to intensify rapidly.

So we are expecting that, highly chances of Deep Depression (Tropical Storm) category system may be impact over West Bengal and Adjoining Bangladesh coast in 23rd October, their after it will be move north north east direction.

So under the influence of Deep depression, High alert for West Bengal coastal district and Kolkata also.

Extremely heavy rainfall and 70 to 80 kmph Wind Speed possible for 22nd and 23rd October.

Low to moderate wind share, high SST and others weather condition are favourable for intensification of this system.

This weather update completely based on all climatological analysis and all combination of GFS, CFS, ECMWF, GEM, AU, STATISTICAL DATA.

This Weather prediction based on according to present situation.

⭐ { ITS MAY BE CHANGEABLE }   

Thank you

Forecaster P. Ghosh

By Weather of West Bengal Team

STATUS:

Update: 09:00 PM IST 23.08.2020

A Low Pressure area will be form over North East Bay of Bengal adjoining Bangladesh Coast in next 36 hours, Chance to intensify into Well Mark low in next 48 hours, their after it will be move West North West Direction and Enter the land nearly Sundarban as a Depression.

All the Weather condition is now Favourable to marginal favourable for intensification process of this system.

After enter the land, this system goes towards the Jharkhand region and start to weakening their after.

For this reason, Extremely heavy rainfall possibility in next 5 Days in all over East West Midnapore & South Bengal region.

40 to 50 kmph Wind Speed and Heavy rainfall possibility in 25th to 27th August, 2020.

50 to 60 kmph Wind and Heavy rainfall possibility in coastal region. 

Fisherman Advices not to venture into the sea in next 5 Days.

This weather update completely based on all climatological analysis and all combination of GFS, CFS, ECMWF, GEM, AU, STATISTICAL DATA.

This Weather prediction based on according to present situation.

⭐ { ITS MAY BE CHANGEABLE }   

Thank you

Forecaster P. Ghosh

By Weather of West Bengal Team

STATUS:

Update: 10:00 PM IST 03.08.2020

A Low Pressure formation Possibility over North East Bayof Bengal in next 12  hours, under the influence of Pacific pulse. 

It will be rapidly intensify in to Well Mark Low Pressure area and chance to intensify further into Depression in subsequently 36 hours.

Very low Wind Share, high Humidity, high Cape index, high atmospheric temperature also favourable for enhancement of this tropical system. 

This system chance to move West North West direction and cross the west Bengal coast in as a Depression or same intense system in next 36 to 48 hour

 vertical wind share is now favourable for gaining strength. 

Current observation and most of the Weather Model indicate this system will be move North North West wards initially, their after it can recurve to North East direction and chance to make landfall near Gujarat Coast with in next 8 Days. 

 This weather update completely based on all climatological analysis and all combination of GFS, CFS, ECMWF, GEM, AU, STATISTICAL DATA.

This Weather prediction based on according to present situation.

⭐ { ITS MAY BE CHANGEABLE }   

Thank you

By Weather of West Bengal Team

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________

STATUS:

Latest Weather condition indicate a low pressure area formed over South East Bay of Bengal and adjoining region, which intensified into a well Mark Low pressure area today morning.

চিত্র অনুযায়ী ঘূর্ণিঝড় তৈরি হওয়ার প্রবণতা ভীষণভাবে বৃদ্ধি পেয়েছে।

This System will be intensify into Depression with in next 12 to 24 hours and move Slightly North- North West direction for some times. Their after it will be intensify into Deep Depression and Cyclonic Storm " Amphan " in next 48 hours and move to northerly Direction till 16th May and then it will be move North North East direction, parallel to the Indian East Coast, and enter the North West Bay of Bengal.

This system will be chance to Rapidly intensify into Cyclonic Storm to Extremely Severe Cyclone, Under the influence of low to medium vertical Wind share.

চিত্র অনুযায়ী ঘূর্ণিঝড় প্রাথমিকভাবে উত্তর উত্তর-পশ্চিম দিকে অগ্রসর হলেও পরবর্তীকালে উত্তর দিক এবং উত্তর-পূর্ব দিকে অভিমুখ পরিবর্তন করার সম্ভাবনা রয়েছে, যার ফলস্বরূপ পশ্চিমবঙ্গ, উত্তর উড়িষ্যা, বাংলাদেশের দক্ষিণ পশ্চিম উপকূল ঘূর্ণিঝড় আছরে পড়ার প্রবণতা প্রবল হয়ে উঠেছে।

Tropical cyclone heat potential energy is now 100 kj/cm^2 or more in most of the places over West Central and North West Bay of Bengal. Which is Very much favourable for enhancement of any cyclone genesis over Bay of Bengal region.

চিত্র অনুযায়ী দেখা যাচ্ছে যে, অতি তীব্র ঘূর্ণিঝড় তৈরি হওয়ার প্রবণতা সবথেকে বেশি।

Mjo is now lies over phase 2 and amplitude equal to 1, it will be maintain in next 7 Days. Their after it will be move phase 3.

Sea surface temperature is now 32°C or more in Most of the Part of Bay of Bengal. 

It's also for Very good for cyclone Development. 

SST, MJO, ROSSBY WAVE, WIND SHARE, THERMAL ENERGY, HEAT POTENTIALITY, etc. all the weather parameters are very much Favourable for any cyclone Genesis over Bay of Bengal in next 7 Days.

Most of the Weather model indicate, Very good chances for formation of strong Low pressure system over Bay of Bengal, so we are expecting that System intensity will be very much high in current Situation.

Now all the analysis indicate, Maximum intensity will be Extremely Severe Cyclone or same intense System in upcoming days.

🔴 This weather update completely based on all climatological analysis and all combination of GFS, CFS, ECMWF, GEM, AU, STATISTICAL DATA.

This Weather prediction based on according to present situation.

⭐ { ITS MAY BE CHANGEABLE }   

Thank you

By Weather of West Bengal Team

Update: 07:30PM IST

14/05/2020