Summer Seasonal long range forecast 2018 - Weather of West Bengal

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Sunday, March 11, 2018

Summer Seasonal long range forecast 2018

This year Weather condition is different than other years. Different climatological condition started to facing our country.
This year winter condition was very chill and stay long time. That the reason of back to back western disterbance supply cool and dry northerly wind, which came to Northern state of India and flow over Gangatic West bengal and nebourhood region. 

 
So now come to Summer 2018 Long range Weather forecast.
At first we are declare that, This year summer will be longer than other year.
That means, most of days in summer will be warmer and dry.
Weather Of West Bengal find out how much longer and stronger summer will be facing people of west bengal.
Specially Western district of west bengal like  Purulia, West Burdwan, West midnapure and Bankura will be facing a cruel summer in this year.
Because of most of the places in west bengal effecting by Strong Westerly dry wind which is come from west and north west India.
This wind share can suck the all moisture  from the west bengal and nebourhood areas.
Other hand of seasonal high pressure area build up over north bay of Bengal. But this year, the High pressure area over Bay of Bengal which can not able to strengthening and maintain its intensity.
As the result, moist and cool wind can not able to enter gangatic West bengal, Which is control the temperature of gangatic West bengal and kolkata also.
This year, this southerly wind will be very weak than north westerly wind.
For this reason temperature will be grow up rapidly.
So this summer will be more warmer than other year.
We are also known that, Kolkata the city of joy is now transfer into a heat stress city in our country. Because of main reason is pollution and urbanisation.
So temperature of kolkata also chance to increase than other years.
So let's come to see, what will be happen this summer ? How much Longer this summer ? About all details of this year summer.


Summer Seasonal Long range Weather Forecast 2018
☉ This year summer will be more hotter and warmer than other years.
☉ Temperature will be always rising than
3°C or 4°C  than normal.
☉ Most of the days in summer will be Dry and warm.
☉ Most of the Day will be facing Heat Wave and heat wave like situation in gangatic West bengal.
☉ Most of the places will be falling in heat wave situation West bengal.
☉ Kolkata will be facing Heat wave like situation and maximum temperature will be record 40°C and above.
☉ After March 3rd week,  Maximum Temperature will be started to rising rapidly in all over west bengal.
☉ After 2nd Week of April, Temperature will be break the record last 5 to 10 years in gangatic West bengal.
☉ Middle of April will be prevailing mainly dry and warmer than other years.
☉ Middle of April, Most of the places in gangatic West bengal fall in a Heat wave situation, Which will One and half week ( Approx 10 Days +2 Days, -2 Days ) longer to continue. That time Kolkata and nebourhood areas will be mostly prevail dry weather condition. No more significant thunderstorm will be occure that time.
After spend those week, Back to back norwester will be impact in and effecting over gangatic West bengal and nebourhood region.
Month of May will be much better weather condition than April. Because of May month will not warmer than April. Because of back to back Norwester ( Kalboisakhi ) effecting all over West bengal and nebourhood areas and last week of May monsoon will be present proper right time in bay of Bengal.
So we can easily say, this year premonsoon activities will be starting from middle of May over West bengal and adjoining region.
Overall this year Summer will be intense than other year but it will stay little bit of time.
Premonsoon activities and enough Norwester we will be seen this year summer.
But this year we also declare that, Summer seasonal total precipitation will be decrease than normal precipitation.
As the reason of Low moisture index.
We are also expecting that this year, Summer rainfall activity will be occure bellow normal 15% which is count in March to May.

Lets see District wise maximum probability of maximum Temperature in this Summer.
This value error + 2°C and -2°C.

All this temperature in this table in °C.
This temperature table is indicate, Maximum probability of Maximum temperature in this summer.




Our Weather forecasting is based on all climatological analysis, Weather model and statistical data.

Let's enjoy the summer.....

Thank You.

By P.Ghosh,
     Utsav Biswas,
     Sangram Boal.

Update: 20:30 IST 
11/03/2018


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